题目：Collective Wisdom of Content Consumers in Online Investing Communities
主讲人：徐大鹏
时间：2024年9月29日 14:30-16:00
地点：北京师范大学珠海校区励耘楼B312
摘要：This study investigates the collective wisdom of individual investors in online investment communities (OICs) and its impact on decision-making in the financial markets. We focus on Seeking Alpha (SA), one of the most popular OICs, and examine the relationship between the popularity of articles, as measured by the number of "likes" received from readers, and the accuracy of stock price predictions made by authors. Our empirical analysis, based on comprehensive data from SA, reveals a significant positive relationship between article popularity and prediction accuracy, suggesting that OIC users collectively possess the wisdom of crowds in identifying more accurate investment opinions. We also explore heterogeneity in the relationship, considering author characteristics, article features, and stock attributes. Furthermore, we present evidence supporting the effectiveness of utilizing the collective wisdom of retail investors in constructing investment portfolios. Overall, our findings contribute to understanding the reliability and usefulness of OICs as platforms for informed decision-making in the investment domain, highlighting the power of collective intelligence in financial markets.
本研究探讨了在线投资社区中个体投资者的集体智慧及其对金融市场决策的影响。我们以全球最受欢迎的在线投资社区之一Seeking Alpha (SA)为例，研究文章受欢迎程度(由读者的“点赞”数量衡量)与作者对股票价格预测准确性的关系。基于SA的综合数据集，我们的实证分析揭示了文章受欢迎程度与预测准确性之间存在显著的正相关关系，这意味着在线投资社区用户集体拥有“群体智慧”，能够更准确地识别投资意见。我们还考虑了作者特征、文章特点和股票属性等因素对这一关系的影响，并提供了利用零售投资者的集体智慧构建投资组合的有效性证据。总的来说，我们的研究有助于理解在线投资社区作为投资领域决策支持平台的可靠性和有用性，凸显了金融市场中集体智慧的力量。
个人简介：天津大学管理学与法学学士，厦门大学管理学博士，现任清华大学经济管理深圳研究院博士后助理研究员。主要研究兴趣为信息系统与智能商务、数字经济与金融科技、大数据分析与因果推断。研究成果被 Information Systems Research 、 Psychology & Marketing 、 Financial Innovation 等国际权威期刊发表或录用。担任 Annals of Tourism Research 、 Electronic Commerce Research and Applications 等重要学术期刊和 International Conference on Information Systems (ICIS) 、 Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences (HICSS) 等著名学术会议的审稿人。研究成果曾获第16届武汉电子商务国际会议的年度唯一最优论文奖。作为主要成员参与承担过多项国家级、省部级科研项目。
