题目：The Reputational Discipline Effect of Alternative Data: Evidence from Online Customer Ratings and Stock Price Crash Risk

主讲人：司毅

地点：北京师范大学珠海校区励耘楼B310

时间： 2026年5月8日 上午10:30-11:30

摘要：Using a comprehensive sample of customer product ratings posted on Amazon.com, we examine whether online customer ratings predict firms’ future stock price crash risk. We find that higher customer ratings are associated with lower one-year-ahead crash risk. To strengthen causal inference, we exploit Amazon’s 2015 change in rating methodology as an exogenous shock and conduct a difference-in-differences analysis. We further use a regression discontinuity design based on Amazon’s rating-rounding mechanism and obtain consistent evidence supporting the reputational-discipline interpretation. To examine the underlying channel, we study timely product-defect disclosure using FDA recall data and related disclosure measures, and find that higher customer ratings are associated with more timely disclosure, which in turn is linked to lower crash risk. Consistent with a reputational-discipline mechanism, the effect is stronger when ratings better capture firm reputation and when product-market concealment costs are likely to be higher. The effect is also stronger for firms with higher information asymmetry and weaker corporate governance. As a supplementary analysis, we show that higher customer ratings are associated with a lower likelihood of securities class action lawsuits. Overall, the evidence suggests that online customer ratings reduce stock price crash risk through reputational discipline.

利用亚马逊网站上顾客产品评分的综合样本，我们考察了在线顾客评分是否能够预测企业未来的股价崩盘风险。研究发现，较高的顾客评分与较低的未来一年崩盘风险显著相关。为强化因果推断，我们以亚马逊2015年评分方法变更为外生冲击，进行了双重差分分析。进一步地，我们基于亚马逊评分四舍五入机制运用断点回归设计，所得证据一致支持声誉约束机制的解释。为探究内在传导路径，我们借助美国食品药品监督管理局产品召回数据及相关披露指标，对产品缺陷披露的及时性进行了检验，结果表明较高的顾客评分与更及时的缺陷披露相关，进而降低了股价崩盘风险。与声誉约束机制相符，当评分更能反映企业声誉以及产品市场隐匿成本可能更高时，上述效应更为显著。此外，对于信息不对称程度较高、公司治理较为薄弱的企业，该效应亦更为明显。补充分析显示，较高的顾客评分与较低的证券集体诉讼概率相关。总体而言，经验证据表明在线顾客评分通过声誉约束机制降低了股价崩盘风险。

个人简介：司毅，西安交通大学管理学院教授，博士研究生导师。分别于厦门大学、西安交通大学和香港城市大学获得管理学（财务管理）和经济学学士（2012）、管理学（工商管理）博士（2017）和会计学博士学位（2018）。入选财政部高层次财会人才、交大“十大学术新人”和“青年拔尖人才支持计划（A类）”，担任中国会计学会会计教育分会常务理事和中国会计学刊青年编委。在Journal of Accounting and Economics，Journal of International Business Studies，Auditing: A Journal of Practice and Theory，European Accounting Review，Journal of Banking and Finance，Journal of Business Ethics，南开管理评论、管理科学、管理工程学报、系统工程理论与实践等发表中国问题的研究论文四十余篇。主持研究国家自然科学基金面上项目和青年项目（结题评估：特优）、教育部人文社会科学基金一般项目和青年项目、陕西省自然科学基金青年项目。研究成果获陕西省科技进步奖二等奖、哲社优秀成果奖二等奖、高等学校科技研究优秀成果奖特等奖和一等奖，美国会计学会国际会计会议最佳论文奖等奖励。获陕西MBA优秀教师、MPAcc案例大赛特等奖和优秀指导教师奖、交大教学成果特等奖和教评满分奖、交大优秀本科生导师等教学奖励。